How to Time Your Trades to the Market

Your market timing strategy is critical to your success as a swing trader. When the stock market rallies, 3 out of 4 stocks will move up with the market. On the other hand, when the stock market sells off, 3 out of 4 stocks will decline with it.

So, it makes sense to time your trades with the market because you want catch these rallies and avoid the declines!

Market timing using moving averages

The first thing you want to look at is a chart of the S&P 500. Look at the 10 SMA and 30 EMA to determine if you should be focusing on long positions or short positions. Here are the rules for timing your trades to the market using moving averages.

If the 10 SMA is above the 30 EMA, you should be focusing on long positions only.

If the 10 SMA is below the 30 EMA, you should be focusing on short positions only.

This simple technique will tell you what type of trades you will be concerned with right now. It identifies the underlying trend to keep you on the right side of the market. Here is an example:

Looking at the chart above, you can see how these moving averages create focus. This part of your market timing strategy answers the question of what types of trades to focus on (long or short).

Moving averages are trend following indicators. As such, they will only work well in trending markets - not when they are the market is trapped in a trading range.

Swing Trading Entry Strategy

Your swing trading entry strategy is the most important part of the trade. This is the one time when all of your trading capital is at risk. Once the stock goes in your favor you can then relax, manage your stops, and await a graceful exit.

This page explains the basic price pattern that is used to enter stocks. Once you become familiar with it, you can try out more advanced strategies based on the specific pattern that you are trading. More on that in the chart patterns section.

With your entry strategy, the first thing that you want be able to do is identify swing points. What's a swing point you ask? This is a pattern that consists of three candles. For entries on long positions, you look for a swing point low. For entries on short positions you look for a swing point high.

Identifying reversals using swing points

For a swing point low:

1. The first candle makes a low.
2. The second candle makes a lower low.
3. The third candle makes a higher low.

This third candle tells us that the sellers have gotten weak and the stock will likely reverse.

For a swing point high:

1. The first candle makes a high.
2. The second candle makes a higher high.
3. The third candle makes a lower high.

This third candle tells us that the buyers have gotten weak and the stock will likely reverse.

For our long entry strategy, we are trying to find stocks that have pulled back and made a swing point low.

Let's look at some examples:

See how the pattern consists of a low (1), lower low (2), then a higher low (3)? This is a classic swing point low. Our entry strategy would be to enter this stock on the day of the third candle.

Now lets look at a stock on the short side.

See how the pattern consists of a high (1), higher high (2), then a lower high (3)? We would look for an entry on the third candle.

It is worth noting that not all swing points will result in a powerful reversal. However, a reversal will not happen without a swing point developing. Take the time to go though a few stock charts and look at the reversals that happened in the past so that you are able to quickly identify this crucial price pattern.

Consecutive price patterns

Ideally, we want to trade stocks that have consecutive down days prior to the swing point low developing. This is the best case scenario. Here is an example on the long side:

This is reversed on the short side. In this case, you want to look for consecutive up days prior to the swing point high developing.

When you are looking for swing points to develop, you always want to look to the left of the chart to see if the stock is at a support or resistance area on the chart. That will improve the reliability of this entry strategy.

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Tip #10. Location of price in a trend

You have heard the saying, "The trend is your friend." I say, "The beginning of a trend is your friend!" That is because some of the best moves occur at the very beginning of a trend...

This stock broke out (horizontal line) from a double bottom (circled). A new trend has begun. So, you want to buy this stock on the first pullback (arrow) after the breakout.

So, there you have it. These price action tips and tricks will make you money in the stock market.

You can use this information to make your own trading strategies and systems. Best of all, once you master this art, you will never have to rely on technical indicators again to make trading decisions.

They won't be necessary.

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Tip #9. Consecutive up days and consecutive down days

Stocks will reverse direction after consecutive up days or down days. So, it pays to keep this in mind when you are looking to buy or short a stock. Here is an example:

You should always look to short a stock after consecutive up days. And, you should look to buy a stock after consecutive down days. This is counter intuitive for new traders because they tend to associate a stock going down as "bad" (meaning sell) and a stock going up as "good" (meaning buy). In fact, it is just the opposite!

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Tip #8. Measure the depth of a swing

How far does a stock move into the prior swing? More than halfway or less? The answer to these questions are important because it can determine the future direction of the stock. Let me give you an example:

The price action moved about halfway down (arrow) into the prior swing (dotted line). This is good. If it retraced more than that, you may want to question the validity of the move. This is because a stock in a strong trend should not retrace more than halfway into a prior swing. It should encounter buying pressure sooner than the half way mark. And many times stocks will reverse right at the halfway mark.

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Tip #7. The gap and trap price pattern

All gaps are important "tells" on any stock chart. But, there is one type of gap that is especially important when analyzing price action (and pinpointing reversals). This is called a gap and trap. This is a stock that gaps down at the open but then closes the day above the opening price. It is easier to see this on a chart...

You can probably see what is happening here. The stock gaps down at the open. Everyone thinks this stock is going to tank. But it doesn't! Buyers come in and move this stock right back up. You can look at one of these candles and almost see all of the confused faces on other stock traders!

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Tip #6. Learn the 50% rule

How can you tell if a candle is significant? Easy. Look to see how far it has moved into the prior days range. If it moves at least 50% into the prior days range, then it is significant. And, it is especially significant if it closes at least 50% into the prior days range. This usually shows up on the stock chart as a piercing candlestick pattern or an engulfing candlestick pattern.

Here is an example:

All of the important reversals in this stock happened only after a candle moved at least 50% into the prior days range (some moved much more than 50%).

This concept is so powerful that I am suspicious of buying any pullback unless it moves at least 50% into the prior days range.